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The current global security order is collapsing right before our eyes. This is more than just an armed conflict, the largest one in Europe since the Second World War. It is about something that was previously unimaginable, but now it’s becoming a reality. The threat of nuclear war has become real from a hypothetical one over the years. Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus are a precedent and a signal to the whole world: now anything is allowed.

But the world order was not broken today. It was broken after the annexation of Crimea, when the countries that signed the Budapest Memorandum were unable to fulfill or, in the case of Russia, openly violated the guarantees given to Ukraine. The reasons for this are clear: in the euphoria of the collapse of communism and the establishment of what seemed to be a democratic power in Russia in the early 90s, the countries that signed the Budapest Memorandum did not bother to prescribe specific mechanisms for its implementation in the event of a direct threat to the territorial integrity of the countries that have renounced nuclear weapons (Belarus and Ukraine). It seemed then that the “end of History” had come.

After the annexation of Crimea, the approach to nuclear disarmament in the world turned 180 degrees. Ultimately, why would the governments of Iran, North Korea, or anyone else who creates a nuclear weapon technology, want to give it up seeing a precedent of Western powers failing to keep their security guarantees? The annexation of Crimea made Putin confident that he could get away with any crime and the Western countries would swallow any of his antics. The result has been a terrible war, which we still see to this day.

Fortunately, awareness of the danger consolidated the civilized world and the response to the aggression was an unprecedented campaign of supporting Ukraine. However, it is still unclear whether this response is part of a systemic strategy to maintain global security or an isolated case of a response to a specific problem. We can hear some politicians calling for a strategy of appeasement of the aggressor and reduction of support for Ukraine. This creates uncertainty about the future and does not contribute to the restoration of the basis of global security.

In our opinion, a legal return to the point from which this problem has begun will allow to solve it: the implementation of the Budapest Memorandum, by preparing and implementing a new legal base.

In addressing you, we propose to initiate the creation of an international body for the preparation of an international instrument that not only regulates legal relations in the field of nuclear weapons, but also provides real mechanisms for the implementation of its norms. This instrument should include the following items:

1. Describing the comprehensive mechanisms of support for Ukraine and independent Belarus, enshrining them in legislation until the end of the current crisis on the terms that will satisfy the government and people of Ukraine and Belarus.
2. Guaranteeing the application of the equivalent of Article 5 of the NATO Treaty by the guarantor countries regarding to present and possible further attempts at aggression.
3. Providing measures to prevent the deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of the Republic of Belarus, mechanisms for the implementation of these measures, ways, and methods for the Belarusian people to exercise the right to self-determination.
4. All the above measures should be guaranteed regardless of whether Russia wishes to recognize and implement such an agreement. At the same time, the agreement should be opened for signature by any future government of Russia that deems it necessary to establish relations with the countries of the civilized world.

Once again, we want to state that this problem is wider than just the problem of relations between two specific countries.

Every government on the planet must understand exactly what price it will pay in the event of an attempt to violate the nuclear non-proliferation agreement, and this price should be excessively high, otherwise the world would face new attempts by mad autocrats to redraw the world map by blackmailing everyone with nuclear war.

Yours faithfully,

Siarhei Bulba Head of non-governmental organization “Belarus 2.0. Robim Razam”